What to watch in Tuesday’s Florida primary elections

Voters in Florida will head to the polls on Tuesday to select their party nominees for key state and federal elections this November.

This week’s primaries mark the first elections in Florida to use the new congressional districts signed into law in May.

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The state’s legislature, which skews heavily Republican, redrew the congressional map this year to favour right-wing candidates.

Florida’s redistricting is part of a broader effort under President Donald Trump to give the Republican Party an advantage in November’s midterm elections, as it seeks to defend its control of Congress.

But Democrats are still seeking to make inroads, despite the state’s increasing tilt towards the right.

Here are the most important races — and storylines — to watch in Florida on Tuesday:

The race for governor

A crowded field of Republicans is vying to replace the party’s term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis in Tuesday’s primary.

But recent polling indicates Congressman Byron Donalds is leading the pack, with Trump’s endorsement. If elected in November, he would be the state’s first Black governor.

His competitors in the Republican gubernatorial primary include state Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former State House Speaker Paul Renner and controversial businessman James Fishback, who has been accused of having racist views.

DeSantis has not endorsed a would-be successor in the race.

The outgoing Republican governor has served as a bellwether for Florida’s broader shift towards the right over the last decade.

When DeSantis first ran for governor in 2018, Florida was considered a swing state. He beat Democrat Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point that year.

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But in 2022, DeSantis overwhelmingly won re-election by 19 percentage points, becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in 20 years to win the once Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County.

During that time, Republicans came to dominate Florida’s legislature, as well as key statewide positions. Since 2019, for instance, both of the state’s US senators have been Republicans.

The party’s rapid rise has left the state’s Democrats struggling to win any major statewide races.

The head of Florida’s Democratic Party, Nikki Fried, acknowledged that “the bottom fell out” for Democrats in recent years, but she and other party leaders hope to reverse the trend this November.

In Tuesday’s Democratic primary, former Congressman David Jolly is expected to win the nomination.

Jolly is expected to attract more moderate voters, as a Republican-turned-independent who is now running as a Democrat.

Replacing Rubio in US Senate

Tuesday will also decide which candidates will compete in a special election to fill the final two years of Marco Rubio’s term in the Senate.

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Rubio left his seat in the chamber in early 2025, after being named Trump’s secretary of state.

Since then, former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody has filled his Senate seat. She is competing in Tuesday’s Republican primary to retain her position and is expected to be the frontrunner this November.

But one of the president’s Democratic foes could bring national attention to this race.

Alexander Vindman, the US Army veteran and former National Security Council aide during Trump’s first term, is among the candidates competing for the Democratic nomination.

His whistleblower complaint helped trigger Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. In the Democratic Senate primary, he is competing against progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon.

It is unclear which Democrat would have the advantage in a head-to-head race against Moody.

A poll released late last month by the University of North Florida found Moody’s rate of support to be fairly stable, at 50 percent, in one-on-one contests with either candidate.

Nixon garnered 42 percent support in such a face-off, while Vindman had 40 percent. In each case, 8 to 10 percent of Florida voters signalled they either were undecided, would not vote or preferred another candidate.

Still, the pollster indicated that the margins were tight. Appointed senators such as Moody generally have a history of not faring as well as candidates who were elected outright.

Conservative Democrat faces challenge

In the greater Miami area, Congressman Jared Moskowitz – one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress – is facing a strong challenge from Oliver Larkin, a democratic socialist union organiser.

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The race between Moskowitz and Larkin has become another battle in the fight between the Democratic establishment and progressives, where policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is taking centre stage.

Larkin has recognised Israel’s war on Gaza as genocide while Moskowitz is one of the most uncompromising Democratic supporters of Israel.

A recent poll showed Moskowitz with a slim, two-point lead, putting him at risk of being the latest incumbent to lose his primary to a progressive outsider.

But regardless of who wins on Tuesday, Democrats have a mountain to climb in November. Moskowitz’s seat now favours Republicans after redistricting.

On the Republican side, businessman Dan Franzese is leading the polls in a crowded field of candidates.

Will Trump’s endorsement be enough for a scandal-plagued Republican?

Embattled Congressman Cory Mills, one of Trump’s top allies, is hoping to overcome a House Ethics Committee investigation that has dragged down his re-election campaign.

On Tuesday, Mills is on the ballot for the Republican primary in central Florida’s 7th congressional district on the Atlantic coast.

But Mills has been involved in a litany of controversies. In one case, police in Washington, DC, responded to a report of assault involving Mills, though he was not charged.

In another, a former girlfriend alleged the two-term legislator threatened to release a sexually explicit video of her as retaliation during a breakup, a form of abuse known as revenge porn.

Mills, who insists he has done nothing wrong, was endorsed by Trump last February.

But there has been speculation that Trump has sought to distance himself from Mills, who was not included when the president recently reiterated his support for several Republicans in the state. DeSantis said on Friday that he will not support Mills in his re-election effort.

If Mills successfully fends off challenges from three fellow Republicans, his seat will likely be a top target for Democrats in November.