The International Energy Agency (IEA), a global energy watchdog, with several of the wealthiest countries as member nations, has announced the largest release of government oil reserves in its history, two weeks after the United States and Israel started their war on Iran with strikes on Tehran.

In retaliatory attacks, Tehran has launched strikes on Israel as well as US military assets and energy facilities in Gulf countries, and has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery in the global oil supply chain, driving up crude prices to more than $100 per barrel.

“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the IEA said in its monthly market report.

While the IEA’s 32 member nations appeared hesitant earlier in the week to tap into the strategic reserves, they ultimately announced they would release nearly 400 million barrels of emergency crude. That’s one-third of the grouping’s total holding of 1.2 billion barrels of government reserves.

Previously, IEA member nations have released oil from emergency reserves five times: During the 1990-1991 Gulf War; after Hurricane Katrina in 2005; during the Libyan civil war in 2011; and twice after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But is this latest release sufficient to calm down the disrupted market?

What has the IEA announced?

The energy watchdog argued that the supply shock triggered by Iran’s strikes on cargo vessels and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz meant energy markets are facing a worse crisis than during the Gulf War of 1991 and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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Before the US and Israel attacked Tehran – and assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – on February 28, Brent crude was trading at about $65 per barrel. Now, it is above $100, and Iranian leaders have warned countries that it will not allow “one litre of oil” to pass the Hormuz Strait if attacks continue, and that the price could go above $200 per barrel.

Earlier this week, former IMF economist Olivier Blanchard was quoted by news outlet Business Insider that this could be possible if tankers carrying oil cannot be protected from Iranian attacks. “I find it hard not to have as a central scenario where oil prices will remain very high for a long time, higher than the market current prices,” Blanchard said on Thursday.

The IEA’s announcement of a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil is much higher than the 2022 release of 182 million barrels of oil by the group’s members after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“Energy security is the founding mandate of the IEA, and I am pleased that IEA members are showing strong solidarity in taking decisive action together,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA.

Birol applauded the member nations’ decision to contribute to the release from their strategic reserves. “This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” Birol said. “But, to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.”

About one-fifth of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s more than 20 million barrels daily on average. And coordinated IEA releases are usually spread over weeks or months, meaning only a portion of the 400 million planned barrels will be released in the short term.

The IEA has not yet provided a precise timeline for releasing the oil.

Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, London, said, ultimately, the IEA release “will not make a large material difference” in the ongoing crisis.

“It really depends on the pace of the release. It is not clear yet what the schedule is,” Quilliam told Al Jazeera. By some calculations, such relief could evaporate as soon as three weeks.

“It’s a one-shot solution. It’s a high-risk strategy,” he said. “So, once that all is finished, there is no real alternative.”

After new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain ayatollah, struck an even more defiant tone in his first address on Thursday, oil prices shot up yet again.

What has the US announced?

The US created its own strategic petroleum reserve in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo exposed Washington’s energy security vulnerabilities.

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It has the world’s largest reserve of countries which publicly report such reserves, with a maximum capacity of about 720 million barrels.

At present, Washington only holds about 415 million barrels of crude, stored in underground salt caverns along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, as stocks have been depleted by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Only China is estimated to have a larger stockpile currently, but Beijing’s holdings are not made public.

The US is currently the world’s largest oil producer and consumer, and has confirmed that it will release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic petroleum reserve as its contribution to coordinated efforts with the IEA.

US President Donald Trump told a local news channel on Thursday that the US government would tap the strategic reserve, in its boldest bid yet to stabilise prices in the energy sector, and “then we’ll fill it up”.

Trump has previously criticised former President Joe Biden’s administration for tapping the reserve to bring down petrol prices.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said the release would begin next week and take roughly 120 days for delivery. He added that the government would then work to replace about 200 million barrels in the next year.

Will this plug the oil shortage straight away?

No.

“Oil molecules move fast, and so do markets. What matters is how fast the released volumes actually move,” Maksim Sonin, an energy executive who works with Stanford University’s Center for Fuels of the Future, told Al Jazeera.

“Unless the underlying problem is solved, no release can fix the market,” he added.

Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, added: “While the IEA has decided to release 400 million barrels from the group’s strategic oil reserves, with commitments from Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, the UK, and the US announced thus far, the market impact of the move may prove limited.

“Supplies will be constrained by the pace at which oil can be extracted from reserves.”

Trump and his officials have changed their position on the endgame from the hostilities against Iran, frequently by the time the sun sets in the other part of the world. The US president, however, insists that the conflict is a blip and not another drawn-out war.

“But the fact that they’ve rolled in with the IEA, and they’re releasing 172 million barrels, is significant,” Quilliam told Al Jazeera. “If we get beyond that timeframe [of ending the fighting and days that the strategic oil reserves can cover], what is the situation gonna be like?”

How quickly can the oil be released?

Not very. On paper, the US claims it can release 4.4 million barrels a day; however, its actual output is much smaller, and deliveries could take weeks to reach after a drawdown is signed.

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The US would release its pledged 172 million barrels over the next 120 days “to deliver based on planned discharge rates”, Chris Wright, the energy secretary, said.

The US Department of Energy says it will be prepared to begin deliveries of oil into the market 13 days after the release and sale. It could take much longer if the oil needs to be shipped to Asia, where the shortage is most severe as a result of the fallout of the Iran war. That means that supplies may not reach Asian refiners until mid-May.

“The US is still in good shape, even given the current release volume,” added Sonin of Stanford University. “Such significant quantities cannot reach refineries in a day or two. It’s faster domestically, where pipeline connectivity is strong, and much slower when barrels are shipped.”

Regardless of the quantities of oil released from the reserves, “the government’s willingness to intervene is itself a strong positive signal to the markets”, Sonin told Al Jazeera.

Is it the ‘right’ type of oil?

The makeup of the entire 400 million barrels being released to the market is not known, but we do know what sort of oil the US has in its own reserves.

Currently, the US reserve has 155 million barrels of sweet crude, which has low sulphur, and 261 million barrels of sour crude, which has high sulphur.

Sweet crude is easier and cheaper to refine, while sour crude requires more complex refining and processing.

While US refineries have seen billions of investment which has equipped them to handle sour crude, many oil importers – such as India, where the energy crisis has caused the government to enact emergency measures to discourage hoarding – do not have the same refining capabilities, further complicating efforts to mitigate the crisis.

Oil comes in various types:

• Extra-heavy crude: Extremely dense and viscous oil, close to bitumen, requiring complex and costly refining.
• Heavy crude: Thick, dense oil with lower density that produces fewer high-value fuels and needs more processing to refine.
• Medium crude: Intermediate density oil which comparatively lesser refining cost and product yield between heavy and light crudes.
• Light crude: Thin, less dense oil that flows easily and yields more valuable products like petrol (gasoline) and diesel with simpler refining.

Will 400,000 barrels of oil be enough in the longer term?

Analysts have described the IEA’s release of oil reserves as a “Band-Aid”.

By charter, the IEA mandates its members, which include the G7 countries, to store emergency oil stocks of at least 90 days’ worth of imports.

Based on past precedents, data firms estimate IEA member countries would be able to boost their output by 1.2 million barrels per day at most on top of this. But this is only a fraction of the daily volume – about 20 million barrels – that sails through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the release is unlikely to have a significant effect on world shortages, analysts say.

What other measures has the US taken to ease economic fallout from the Iran war?

Besides releasing oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve, the Trump administration has taken a few additional measures to ease supply pressures and attempt to curb rising oil prices.

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The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil that was already loaded and at sea, amounting to roughly 100 million barrels, in an effort to quickly add supply to global markets.

The administration is also considering temporarily waiving the Jones Act, a US maritime law requiring goods shipped between domestic ports to be carried on US-built and US-crewed vessels, aiming to ease domestic supply bottlenecks.

However, a White House spokesperson said this has not been finalised yet.