United States President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he is pausing attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure for five days and claimed that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” aimed at ending their war.

The same day, Trump told reporters that his envoys were talking to a senior Iranian official.

While Trump did not name the official, multiple news outlets in Israel and the US have reported that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, are talking to the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Both the Iranian government and Ghalibaf have denied that talks between Washington and Tehran are taking place. And in the Iranian system, any negotiations with the US would need to be approved by new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council for them to have any legitimacy.

Who is Ghalibaf, and what do we know about these supposed negotiations?

What do we know about the talks Trump claims to be having?

On Saturday, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk US attacks on its power plants. In response, Iran said it would attack energy and water facilities in Israel and the Gulf. Ghalibaf also threatened companies that hold US Treasury bonds.

Then on Monday, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. He ordered US forces to hold fire against Iranian power plants for five days.

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Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has rejected Trump’s claims that negotiations were under way. Iranian officials accused Trump of pausing his threatened attacks only in an attempt to calm energy markets.

News outlets reported on Monday that Trump said his envoys were in contact with a senior Iranian official.

“We are dealing with a man that I believe is the most respected – not the supreme leader. We have not heard from him,” Trump said told reporters on Monday.

Trump said he did not want to name the Iranian leader because he did not want to get him killed, but, the US news websites Axios and Politico and multiple Israeli publications have reported that Witkoff and Kushner had been in touch with Ghalibaf.

However, on Monday, Ghalibaf wrote in an X post: “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”

Who is Ghalibaf?

Ghalibaf, 64, is Iran’s parliamentary speaker.

He served as the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air force from 1997 to 2000. After this, he served as the country’s police chief. From 2005 to 2017, he was the mayor of Tehran.

Ghalibaf stood in elections for president in 2005, 2013, 2017 and 2024. He withdrew his bid for president before the election in 2017.

In May 2020, Ghalibaf became the parliamentary speaker, replacing Ali Larijani, who had been speaker from 2008. Larijani was a close adviser to former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the US-Israeli war on February 28. Larijani, Iran’s top security official, was also killed on March 17 in an Israeli strike.

What has Ghalibaf said during the war?

In his posts online, Ghalibaf has been among the fiercest critics of the US and Israel and has repeatedly issued threats to Israel, the US and the Gulf. Those threats have often echoed the IRGC’s warnings – but at times have gone even beyond what the military itself has threatened to do.

On March 14, he mocked Trump for claiming that the US had defeated Iran. Three days later, he declared that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-war state. On Sunday, Ghalibaf posted that financial bodies that fund Washington’s military are legitimate targets for Iran: “US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets.”

And on Monday, Ghalibaf posted a thread of posts on X, denying that talks with the US were taking place.

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“Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” he wrote. “All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved.”

What is the likelihood of any talks right now?

Experts think negotiations are plausible as pressure is building on Trump to end the war but are cautious about any predictions over whether they might succeed.

“I would assess the likelihood of talks at 60 percent for several reasons,” Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi told Al Jazeera.

Habibi explained that the costs of the war were high for all parties. Trump faces pressure to contain the war and prevent attacks on energy infrastructure. He faces pressure from Gulf countries and major economic partners, such as European countries, Japan and South Korea, who have been harmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He also faces mounting concerns among his fellow Republicans worried about the rising cost of fuel impacting the party’s chances in the midterm elections scheduled for November.

He added that Iran faces pressure as well. “Iran’s surviving leadership is under considerable stress and is worried about attacks to key energy and power plant infrastructure.”

Habibi added that several mediating countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye, have been able to establish a communication channel with Iranian officials. This paves the way for negotiations.

Additionally, China is also using its influence to get Iran to negotiate, Habibi said.

“Israel and the United States were expecting a short war with a path to regime collapse. Now they are revising their expectations and are aware of the high cost of a prolonged war in which Iran is able to hit targets in Israel.”

What’s next?

“It is hard to predict whether any talks that take place in the next few days will be successful,” Habibi said.

He added that there might be a reduction in violence and some confidence-building measures on both sides during the negotiations but there is no guarantee of a comprehensive deal that could end the war.

“There might be disagreement between Israel and the US on requirements for ending the war. Similarly, some factions among Iran’s ruling elite might resist the concessions that Iran is expected to offer to meet the demands of the United States,” Habibi said.