Seven weeks after the US-Israel war on Iran closed down airspaces and plunged the aviation industry into chaos, airlines traversing the Middle East are slowly returning to normal traffic after being forced to cancel and reroute hundreds of flights.

But a new and potentially more damaging threat has emerged – a critical shortage in jet fuel that could ground flights in Europe, just as the summer travel season approaches.

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On Thursday, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, told AP news agency that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left”, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain halted by the war, despite a two-week truce called between Iran and the US last week.

At the centre of this disruption is a shortage of jet fuel amid the ongoing standoff at the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran. The strait is a vital water passageway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped during peacetime.

The collapse in supplies has driven a sharp spike in energy prices worldwide, initially forcing the price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel from a pre-war price of $66. The crisis has prompted governments to tap into strategic oil and gas reserves, and the United Kingdom has begun talks with a coalition of more than 40 countries – not including the US – aimed at finding a way to reopen the strait.

European aviation is particularly exposed to the shortage of jet fuel, relying heavily on imports from the Middle East. Around 75 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially problematic for its aviation industry.

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The summer season is a particularly busy season for Europe in terms of tourists, with some 747 million international arrivals in 2024.

Here’s what we know.

What is jet fuel?

Jet fuel is a colourless, refined kerosene-based petroleum product used to power aircraft with gas-turbine engines. It is most commonly found in the form of Jet A and Jet A-1.

Another type is Jet B, which is used in aircraft during colder weather.

Jet fuel is produced in oil refineries primarily in China, the Middle East and the US. These specialised refineries are operated by some of the world’s biggest oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco.

Jet fuel is usually stored in large bulk facilities at or near major airports, as well as in airport fuel farms, where it is stored in large tanks and finally delivered to aircraft either via underground hydrant systems that connect directly to gates or by refuelling trucks.

According to Energy Intelligence, an energy-related reporting and analysis website, worldwide jet fuel use reached 7.788 million barrels per day in 2025. That number was expected to rise by 2.6 percent in 2026, to 7.988 million.

Why is Europe sounding the alarm?

Aviation associations, particularly in Europe, have sounded the alarm over limited jet fuel supplies.

Last week, the Airports Council International Europe (ACI) warned that a fuel crunch would “significantly harm the European economy”, in a letter to the European Commission.

European fuel storage hubs are already seeing declining stock levels while alternative supplies from the US and elsewhere are struggling to fully compensate for lost Middle Eastern volumes.

In Europe, benchmark jet fuel prices spiked to a record $1,800 per ton on March 18, before slightly retreating in April.

Several airports have cautioned that they could face fuel shortfalls within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to fuel deliveries.

Moreover, if the traffic in the strait remains blocked, some oil products could potentially dry up altogether, Birol warned.

“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights [in Europe] from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” he told AP.

Also on Thursday, German carrier Lufthansa said it will close its regional unit, CityLine, citing surging jet fuel costs as well as the impact of strikes, “in order to reduce further losses of the loss-making airline”.

On Wednesday, Lufthansa CTO Grazia Vittadini told Reuters news agency that “our [jet fuel] suppliers are changing their forecasting windows, and ⁠⁠they’re no longer keen to give an outlook over a time window that goes beyond one month”.

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