As the Israeli military’s media apparatus crows about the February 2026 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and several family members, as a purely Israeli intelligence triumph, the operational reality on the ground tells a far more complex story.

The series of high-profile “decapitation” strikes that also decimated the leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah in 2025 and 2024, respectively, are increasingly viewed by military analysts not as the long arm of the Mossad, but as the result of a massive and pervasive United States technological umbrella as well as profound internal decay within Tehran’s security apparatus.

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Washington’s umbrella

The narrative of Israeli self-reliance intentionally obscures a structural dependency on Washington. The strike that killed Khamenei and Iran’s top military brass was essentially a joint US-Israeli mission. Experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) note the mission relied heavily on a target bank and real-time electronic surveillance provided by the CIA.

The technical footprint is undeniably from the confines of Langley, the Virginia, US home of the CIA, and its global web. US MQ-9 Reaper drones circled over Tehran and Shiraz to facilitate precision targeting, while the heavy lifting of destroying Iran’s hardened missile sites in the south was handled by US Tomahawk missiles and B-52 bombers.

This pattern mirrors the September 2024 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, where the Israeli Air Force dropped more than 80 US-made 907kg [2,000lb] bunker-buster bombs to reach a command centre 10m [33 feet] underground.

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The CIA tracked Khamenei for months, gaining high-fidelity intelligence on his patterns. It was the CIA that confirmed Khamenei would be at the Tehran leadership compound that fateful Saturday morning, prompting a joint US-Israeli decision to adjust the attack’s timing from night to day.

For the Israeli security apparatus, this overwhelming reliance on Washington is spun domestically as a victory. Mamoun Abu Amer, an Istanbul-based expert on Israeli affairs, told Al Jazeera that this is not the effort of Israeli intelligence alone, but a collaboration with international agencies, including the CIA and the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence arm, MI6.

“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has utilised this to present a personal political victory to his public—proving that he successfully dragged the US president into a direct military confrontation with Iran, a quagmire that previous US administrations and military chiefs strictly avoided,” Abu Amer said.

Wolves in Tehran

Far from proving Mossad’s projected genius, recent operations expose a catastrophic collapse in the security discipline of its adversaries. The July 2024 assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a high-security IRGC guest house in Tehran was not a feat of futuristic technology, but a result of sleeper penetration. The explosive device was smuggled into the room two months before his arrival – a feat requiring local collaborators.

Israeli intelligence spent years hacking Tehran’s traffic cameras, specifically around Khamenei’s Pasteur Street compound, to build a pattern of life for his bodyguards. They also jammed local mobile phone towers moments before the strike to prevent the guards from receiving warnings.

Abu Amer argues this infiltration exploits sociopolitical fractures rather than relying solely on Israeli technical superiority. “Mossad rarely relies solely on its own operatives, often using foreign proxies holding dual citizenships to infiltrate these countries without raising suspicion,” Abu Amer noted.

In Iran and Lebanon, Mossad relies heavily on internal opposition factions willing to collaborate for ideological reasons. It also uses layers of blackmail and threats against the more vulnerable.

Abu Amer contrasts this with the besieged and decimated Gaza Strip, where tight social cohesion severely limited Israeli intelligence forays, allowing Hamas and other groups to hide captives and operate for extended periods despite total Israeli surveillance.

The Mossad has also masterfully exploited commercial deception. The September 2024 pager operation in Lebanon, which resulted in dozens of deaths and loss of limbs among civilians, involved infiltrating supply chains through European shell companies. By spreading rumours via Unit 8200 about their ability to hack smartphones, the Israelis forced Hezbollah into the safety of pagers, which they had already booby-trapped.

The glass house

While Israel projects an image of regional, and even global, invincibility, its own home front remains remarkably porous. By April 2024, Israeli authorities had charged more than 30 citizens for spying for Iran. These recruits, often found via simple Telegram messages, were paid via PayPal to conduct high-stakes espionage.

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The spy-for-hire network successfully filmed sensitive sites, including the Nevatim airbase, the port of Haifa, and the Glilot military intelligence headquarters. Iran later used these coordinates for its ballistic missile retaliations, shattering the illusion of an impenetrable society.

Furthermore, the joint US-Israeli strikes have sparked an environmental and humanitarian crisis. Al Jazeera reporters in Tehran documented black raindrops and toxic air following unprecedented strikes on civilian oil infrastructure, including the Tehran refinery.

As Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall reported from Tehran, these attacks are part of a “psychological war” intended to frighten Iranians, highlighting a shift towards total warfare that targets civilian livelihoods.

Tactical wins, strategic failures

The current attempt to restore Israeli deterrence follows a decades-long record of operational incompetence, including the botched 1973 Lillehammer assassination, the humiliating 1997 failure to poison Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Amman, during which Jordan’s King Hussein pressured Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to supply the antidote, and the exposure of 26 Mossad agents by Dubai police in 2010.

Despite the sheer violence of the recent “decapitation” strikes, experts warn they fail to deliver long-term security. These are tactical successes but strategic failures driven by Israel’s perceived tactical and operational supremacy, Abu Amer said.

“Netanyahu claimed the June 2025 strikes on Iran would secure Israel for generations. Yet, eight months later, the region is engulfed in war again, with rockets reaching all of Israel and Hezbollah proving its resilience on the ground,” Abu Amer said.

He drew a parallel to past Israeli hubris regarding the US invasion of Iraq, which was touted as a gateway to permanent Middle East security but ultimately delivered long-term instability and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths as well as a high death toll among US troops.

“Relying on intelligence assassinations does not alter the broader strategic reality; it merely provides temporary relief while dragging Israel into conflicts it cannot survive alone,” Abu Amer concluded.