Why India has soured on Trump ahead of US midterms

Seven years after Modi backed Trump, analysts say New Delhi may now hope US midterm losses leave the president chastened.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-President Donald Trump walk the perimeter of the arena floor to greet attendees after Modi’s speech during the ‘Howdi Modi’ event, on September 22, 2019, at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, US [Michael Wyke/AP]

Striking a nerve

India has long enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington. Yet traditionally, New Delhi’s strategic community has often felt more comfortable with Republican presidents in power.

It was under Ronald Reagan, as the Cold War wound down, that India and the US reset ties after decades of mistrust amid New Delhi’s strong relationship with Moscow. Then, between 2006 and 2008, under George W Bush, India and the US struck a landmark civil nuclear deal. India was allowed access to global nuclear technology and fuel despite not being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under Bush, India and the US also signed major military pacts, including allowing US ships and planes refuelling and logistical access to Indian bases.

By contrast, New Delhi has often seen US Democratic administrations as more critical of India’s human rights record.

The tradition of friendly ties with US Republican presidents appeared set to continue under Trump, amid visible bonhomie between the US leader and Modi. The Indian prime minister even called Trump “India’s best friend in the White House”.

But Trump 2.0 has been very different, from India’s perspective.

So different that New Delhi has chosen to break with a long-held practice. India usually addresses divisive issues with friendly nations quietly, behind the scenes. But months of tensions on a string of issues have pushed India to adopt a more openly critical tone towards the White House.

Last month, speaking at an event in New York, India’s foreign minister, Minister of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, shared a pointed, blunt assessment of the Trump administration: It has been an insensitive partner to India’s concerns over “terrorism”; has warmed to its archrival Pakistan; and has pursued “self-centred” trade policies that have disproportionately hurt the Global South.

“Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision, and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’,” he said.

One of the biggest sticking points between both capitals is an elusive trade deal that could bring relief to India, among the worst-hit countries under Trump’s tariff regime.

Earlier this month, India’s finance minister, Minister of Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the negotiations had reached a “plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult”.

Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has also often targeted Indians and Indian Americans, using racist tropes, accusing them of “stealing” jobs in the United States via programmes like the H-1B visa schemes. Anti-Indian rhetoric on US social media is at an all-time high. And early in his second term, Trump sent many undocumented Indian immigrants back home shackled in chains – a visual that stirred outrage in India.

Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia programme at the Washington, DC-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, said the Indian government “can tolerate genuine policy differences with a US administration”. However, “the attacks on India and Indian Americans coming from this administration, and many of their allies in the media and on social media, have struck a nerve,” he said.

Vaishnav, like other analysts, told Al Jazeera that despite recent criticism coming from New Delhi, “the Modi government has shown admirable restraint in its response”.

US President Donald Trump gestures on stage at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, US, on September 10, 2026 [Callaghan O’Hare/Reuters]

Can a midterm loss subdue Trump?

The upcoming US midterm elections are crucial for Trump. If he loses control of Congress for the final two years of his presidency, it would give Democrats more power to scrutinise his administration’s policies.

Trump is facing the worst approval ratings of his political career amid record-high gas prices in the US due to the global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February this year.

Vaishnav, of Carnegie Endowment, said that “a chastened Trump would be in India’s interests”.

“There are many Democrats on Capitol Hill, not to mention Republicans, who are livid with this administration’s handling of US-India ties,” he said. “While they might have their criticisms of India’s politics, economics, and foreign policy, they genuinely believe in the logic of a strong US-India partnership.”

A Democrat-dominated Congress could have a “moderating impact” on Washington’s foreign policy, he said.

But Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based analyst on South Asia, said he doubts Trump’s foreign policy would be affected by the election results, “at least not when it comes to the question of India”.

Kugelman noted that Trump is entering the last era of his presidency – he cannot legally run for a third term – and “he is going to continue to pursue a policy that he would think could best advance US economic interests” when it comes to dealing with New Delhi.

“If he thinks that could entail threatening additional tariffs on India, then he would do that.”

Crisis Group’s Donthi told Al Jazeera that New Delhi would hope that bilateral relations improve after Trump leaves office, “and that [Washington] can take a more patient, strategic approach”.

But, meanwhile, he said, a weakened Trump might not necessarily bring relief to India, “as there seems to be broader consensus [among Trump-aligned Republicans] on the need to pressure India”.

For New Delhi, that landscape marks a dramatic shift from just a few years ago.

Two years back, days after Trump had won the 2024 election, Foreign Minister Jaishankar said, with a wide smile, that “many countries are nervous about the US today, but let’s be honest — we [India] are not one of them”.

Today, those smiles are gone.